Tennessee deer harvest totals are ALL wrong.
How about that for an attention grabbing title?!? Although it is a somewhat inflammatory statement, it is also utterly and completely true... and this comes directly from someone who was once in charge of gathering that exact data. My hope now is that that little snippet of knowledge you just read will actually get you to read the entire article. It's not only worth reading, it's also worth understanding.
Since many states will be finalizing their deer harvest totals now or in the very near future, there will undoubtedly come break room banter regarding what these totals actually mean. And I have a sneaking suspicion few will actually understand the totals and draw proper and meaningful conclusions...but I'm here to help.
So are the Tennessee totals all wrong?
Yes, absolutely and without a doubt.
And...
...it's also absolutely without a doubt completely ALRIGHT.
In all actuality, no state knows exactly the number of deer they killed in any given year, it's simply an impossible number to identify . But here's the best part, it doesn't matter if you know the exact number or not, that number is not the important piece of data you need in order to manage a deer herd. I will get into that in a bit but first let me tell you the reason why no state knows the exact number of deer that are killed each year. Let's first start with a few other states in the Southeast.
There are many states to our south that gather their harvest data in a much different way than Tennessee. For example, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama have all been known to generate their harvest numbers by conducting hunter surveys at the end of the year. Simply put, they call up a small sample of hunters, ask them "how many deer did you kill," then they multiply that number by the number of hunters they have in their state, and voila! ...they have their total number of deer killed. I will break that down even further.
Each year, upon the conclusion of the deer season, the state of "X" calls up about a few thousand deer hunters and asks them how many bucks and does they killed. They then take the average number of kills per hunter, for example, each hunter claims they killed one buck and two does, so each hunter on average killed three deer. If they have 100,000 deer hunters in their state, they then calculate an overall harvest of 300,000 deer. Understand, I used whole numbers to demonstrate how this is calculated. In all actuality these numbers are usually much smaller and much more precise (e..g. 0.423 bucks, 0.618 does) but that is how their totals are generated. If you're interested you can read more about that here: http://www.georgiawildlife. org/node/3335
How about that for an attention grabbing title?!? Although it is a somewhat inflammatory statement, it is also utterly and completely true... and this comes directly from someone who was once in charge of gathering that exact data. My hope now is that that little snippet of knowledge you just read will actually get you to read the entire article. It's not only worth reading, it's also worth understanding.
Since many states will be finalizing their deer harvest totals now or in the very near future, there will undoubtedly come break room banter regarding what these totals actually mean. And I have a sneaking suspicion few will actually understand the totals and draw proper and meaningful conclusions...but I'm here to help.
So are the Tennessee totals all wrong?
Yes, absolutely and without a doubt.
And...
...it's also absolutely without a doubt completely ALRIGHT.
In all actuality, no state knows exactly the number of deer they killed in any given year, it's simply an impossible number to identify . But here's the best part, it doesn't matter if you know the exact number or not, that number is not the important piece of data you need in order to manage a deer herd. I will get into that in a bit but first let me tell you the reason why no state knows the exact number of deer that are killed each year. Let's first start with a few other states in the Southeast.
There are many states to our south that gather their harvest data in a much different way than Tennessee. For example, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama have all been known to generate their harvest numbers by conducting hunter surveys at the end of the year. Simply put, they call up a small sample of hunters, ask them "how many deer did you kill," then they multiply that number by the number of hunters they have in their state, and voila! ...they have their total number of deer killed. I will break that down even further.
Each year, upon the conclusion of the deer season, the state of "X" calls up about a few thousand deer hunters and asks them how many bucks and does they killed. They then take the average number of kills per hunter, for example, each hunter claims they killed one buck and two does, so each hunter on average killed three deer. If they have 100,000 deer hunters in their state, they then calculate an overall harvest of 300,000 deer. Understand, I used whole numbers to demonstrate how this is calculated. In all actuality these numbers are usually much smaller and much more precise (e..g. 0.423 bucks, 0.618 does) but that is how their totals are generated. If you're interested you can read more about that here: http://www.georgiawildlife.
Can everyone see how this is not an exact number? The good news is it's relatively close, but again, that is not the important issue. Now let's look at Tennessee.
As everyone knows, the law requires that throughout the season, each hunter must check in any deer they killed at the end of the day. By seasons end, Tennessee reports the exact number of deer that were checked in. That number is simply how many deer were legally checked in...a bare minimum estimate of how many deer were actually killed.
Can everyone see why this number is also not correct? It is because we know for a fact that not all deer are checked in. Tennessee doesn't even know what percentage of deer are checked in whether it's 50%, 75% or 95%. Believe it or not, it doesn't matter.
Wait a minute? How the heck can you manage a deer herd if you don't know the exact number of deer that are killed?
This is one of the main differences between micro management and macro management. In other words, the difference between managing your property versus managing the state, or county for that matter. As I just demonstrated, macro management often involves "sketchy" data, you simply don't know if your numbers are correct. Knowing this, what becomes of utmost importance then is trend data. In other words, how are the numbers changing over time. Here is why this is so important.
If a state typically reports somewhere around 225,000 deer killed each year and that number stays relatively constant and then suddenly the number drops to 140,000, it is a pretty good indication that something funky is going on with their deer herd. Keep in mind, the most important factor here is that the data is collected in the same way each and every year. Managers can look at trend data and determine if populations are increasing, decreasing, or stable. They oftentimes do this on a county by county basis. They can then adjust countywide regulations accordingly.
This is why someone cannot simply look at the harvest totals from one year and claim the sky is falling, or even for that matter, look how great we did! In all actuality, you nor anyone else, have any idea exactly how many deer were killed in any given year. So the next time you go to the water cooler during your coffee break to brag or criticize the deer kill, make sure you bring the data from a whole bunch of years to back you up. I must admit though, it sure is fun to look at...just know what the heck you're talking about.